It’s award race season in the NBA. The regular season is winding down, and ballots for honors like MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and Rookie of the Year will be due in a few weeks. There’s also the significant task of picking All-NBA Teams (which is done by a panel of writers and broadcasters).
Before we dive into predictions, let’s get this out of the way. Both of the following things about All-NBA selections are true:
In practical terms, there is no honor more important for the NBA than the All-NBA selections. There is only one MVP. There is only one Defensive Player of the Year. But there are 15 All-NBA choices. Those players all get the same practical benefit for their achievement: eligibility for a better contract. For younger players, it’s a bump from 25% of the cap to 30% of the cap in the first year of a rookie extension via the Derrick Rose rule. For older ones, it’s a bump from 30% to 35% through the designated veteran exception. This is the honor that dictates how much money a player can make, and therefore means quite a bit to all 30 teams.
The field for All-NBA selections has never been smaller. The 2023 CBA instituted a 65-game minimum for awards consideration. Fewer players reach 65 games now than they did in the past due to a combination of greater wear and tear from the modern game and the load management teams employ to protect against it. The best players have plenty of chances to make All-NBA Teams, but their absence on specific ballots opens the door for lesser players to make it and earn the financial benefit that comes with it.
With both of these factors in mind, there’s suddenly quite a bit of pressure on voters to get these picks right. Put the wrong player on one of the teams and he could become eligible for a contract that his team doesn’t want to give him. That creates an awkward standoff if they elect not to or an overpay if they decide to do so. Most voters would prefer not to have this power, but, well, that’s not the world we live in.
So let’s dive into the All-NBA Teams and predict who actually makes the cut. This will include the three actual teams that will be chosen, of course, but given all of the injuries that could keep certain candidates below 65 games, we will also include a hypothetical fourth team to represent the next five players up should any slots become available. With that in mind, we’ll begin with the First Team, which was relatively easy to pick.
First-Team All-NBA prediction
Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Thunder
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks
Jayson Tatum, Celtics
Donovan Mitchell, Cavaliers
Let’s knock the two MVP candidates out of the way quickly. Jokić is having the second-best season in NBA history by PER and Gilgeous-Alexander is having the 21st-best season in NBA history by that same metric. Turn to Win Shares per 48 minutes and Gilgeous-Alexander jumps to 10th while Jokić sits just a hair below him in 11th. Jokić is again second in BPM while Gilgeous-Alexander is 15th. This is more or less what you’re going to find if you look at any all-in-one metric: Jokić having one of the greatest statistical seasons in NBA history with Gilgeous-Alexander right behind him on a team that figures to win 60-plus games. If you don’t think they’re two of the five best players of this season, well, you’re probably fighting a lonely battle.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum are similarly easy choices, though Antetokounmpo is the first player for whom we must mention the 65-game minimum. The Bucks have 17 games remaining and Antetokounmpo needs to play in 12 of them to be eligible. We’ll assume for now that happens.
Antetokounmpo has made been chosen to the First Team six years in a row, and there is no marker to suggest it shouldn’t be seven. His numbers are more or less identical to where they were a year ago, but with meaningful improvement in one key area: mid-range shooting. He currently ranks seventh in the NBA with 4.3 mid-range attempts per game and he is making 46.7% of them. That’s encouraging for Milwaukee’s postseason hopes, and it should lock up yet another All-NBA selection.